DingerDashHR · Model v2.0
History
Live · MLB Stats
// Daily Slate · Auto-updated

Who's going deep tonight?

Today's hitters, ranked live by our proprietary model. This live leaderboard scores every batter in action using a blend of power metrics, opposing pitcher matchups, and a little secret sauce to spotlight the bats most likely to help you cash your next slip.

Sports betting should always be fun. Bet responsibly, know your limits, and remember that odds can move at any moment. In the end, Vegas is still running the show.

Today's Slate
Friday, June 19
Lineups 25/26 posted
Games
13
Batters Ranked
25
Model
v2.0
Legend
Hot Pick
Strong Pick
Moderate Pick
// Home Run Hot Spots
11 games · 7.8 expected HRs

Hottest spot: BAL @ LAD at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · projects 1.66 HRs (0.36 away / 1.30 home, park 1.00×).

Park (Total)
  • UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
    BAL @ LAD
    1.66
  • Sutter Health Park
    LAA @ ATH
    1.21
  • Coors Field
    PIT @ COL
    0.84
  • Tropicana Field
    WSH @ TB
    0.80
  • Daikin Park
    CLE @ HOU
    0.64
  • Yankee Stadium
    CIN @ NYY
    0.60
  • Chase Field
    MIN @ AZ
    0.57
  • Comerica Park
    CWS @ DET
    0.55
Away HRs
  • WSH
    @ TB
    0.80
  • MIN
    @ AZ
    0.57
  • STL
    @ KC
    0.52
  • LAA
    @ ATH
    0.44
  • PIT
    @ COL
    0.39
  • BAL
    @ LAD
    0.36
  • CWS
    @ DET
    0.29
  • CIN
    @ NYY
    0.20
Home HRs
  • LAD
    vs BAL
    1.30
  • ATH
    vs LAA
    0.77
  • HOU
    vs CLE
    0.64
  • COL
    vs PIT
    0.44
  • NYY
    vs CIN
    0.40
  • DET
    vs CWS
    0.26
  • TB
    vs WSH
    0.00
  • AZ
    vs MIN
    0.00
// Matchup Leaders
11 games · top HR bat per matchup
WSH @ TBTropicana Field
James Wood
vs Griffin Jax · HR/9 1.72
HR
20
Brl%
23.9
Park
0.98×
P(HR)
45.7%
#1SP ERA 3.80
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit73%
2+ Total Bases65%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)42%
1+ Single49%
1+ HR46%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.80 · BP 4.67
1+ K80%
2+ K40%
1+ BB61%
COL vs PITCoors Field
Hunter Goodman
vs Bubba Chandler · HR/9 1.06
HR
21
Brl%
16.3
Park
1.35×
P(HR)
44.4%
#3SP ERA 4.76
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit67%
★2+ Total Bases70%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)44%
1+ Single42%
1+ HR44%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 4.76 · BP 4.43
1+ K83%
2+ K43%
1+ BB47%
LAA @ ATHSutter Health Park
Zach Neto
vs Jeffrey Springs · HR/9 2.16
HR
15
Brl%
13.1
Park
1.02×
P(HR)
43.6%
#1SP ERA 5.13
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit65%
2+ Total Bases59%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)40%
1+ Single40%
1+ HR44%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.13 · BP 4.86
1+ K79%
2+ K38%
1+ BB35%
NYY vs CINYankee Stadium
Ben Rice
vs Rhett Lowder · HR/9 0.92
HR
21
Brl%
15.7
Park
1.14×
P(HR)
40.0%
#1SP ERA 5.11
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit75%
★2+ Total Bases78%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)54%
1+ Single46%
1+ HR40%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.11 · BP 4.93
1+ K62%
2+ K22%
1+ BB63%
HOU vs CLEDaikin Park
Yordan Alvarez
vs Tanner Bibee · HR/9 1.61
HR
24
Brl%
18.7
Park
1.00×
P(HR)
38.8%
#2SP ERA 3.96
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit79%
2+ Total Bases74%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)45%
1+ Single56%
1+ HR39%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.96 · BP 3.66
1+ K54%
2+ K16%
1+ BB46%
MIN @ AZChase Field
Byron Buxton
vs Michael Soroka · HR/9 0.67
HR
23
Brl%
18.5
Park
1.06×
P(HR)
37.7%
#2SP ERA 3.11
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit71%
★2+ Total Bases72%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)48%
1+ Single43%
1+ HR38%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.11 · BP 4.01
1+ K77%
2+ K36%
1+ BB19%
BAL @ LADUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Pete Alonso
vs Roki Sasaki · HR/9 1.59
HR
16
Brl%
12.1
Park
1.00×
P(HR)
35.7%
#3SP ERA 4.76
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit66%
2+ Total Bases55%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single47%
1+ HR36%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 4.76 · BP 3.72
1+ K71%
2+ K29%
1+ BB41%
STL @ KCKauffman Stadium
Alec Burleson
vs Seth Lugo · HR/9 0.80
HR
13
Brl%
11.4
Park
0.92×
P(HR)
33.8%
#3SP ERA 3.86
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases53%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single53%
1+ HR34%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.86 · BP 4.84
1+ K48%
2+ K12%
1+ BB29%
CWS @ DETComerica Park
Colson Montgomery
vs Tarik Skubal · HR/9 0.68
HR
20
Brl%
14.3
Park
0.93×
P(HR)
29.1%
#4SP ERA 2.89
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit62%
2+ Total Bases58%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)39%
1+ Single34%
1+ HR29%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 2.89 · BP 4.05
1+ K86%
2+ K46%
1+ BB17%
SF @ MIAloanDepot park
Willy Adames
vs Lake Bachar · HR/9 1.12
HR
13
Brl%
9.8
Park
0.90×
P(HR)
19.4%
#6SP ERA 3.10
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit60%
2+ Total Bases45%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single37%
1+ HR19%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.10 · BP 3.43
1+ K81%
2+ K39%
1+ BB22%
BOS @ SEAT-Mobile Park
Willson Contreras
vs Bryce Miller · HR/9 1.03
HR
16
Brl%
13.8
Park
0.92×
P(HR)
18.0%
#4SP ERA 1.54
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases59%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)37%
1+ Single50%
1+ HR18%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 1.54 · BP 3.43
1+ K82%
2+ K42%
1+ BB17%
// Edge Finder · Manual Odds Paste

Paste HR odds from any book. Supports CSV, tab-separated grids copied from a sportsbook page, free-form ("Judge Pinnacle +450 FD +390"), or simple "Player +odds" lines. To see edges you need at least one sharp line (Pinnacle or Circa); otherwise we show odds next to model probabilities.

Top Pick · #1

James Wood0.949 OPS

WSH @ TB · vs Griffin Jax

Confirmed · Bats 1vs Griffin JaxTropicana FieldPark 0.98×Roof · 86°FHR/9 1.72SP ERA 3.80 · BP 4.67LHB vs RHPL15: 4HR/57PA
HR Probability
45.7%
HR
20
AVG
.275
SLG
.544
ISO
.269
Barrel%
23.9%
Hard-Hit%
58.2%
Exit Velo
95.5
xSLG
.619
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit73%
2+ Total Bases65%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)42%
1+ Single49%
1+ HR46%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.80 · BP 4.67
1+ K80%
2+ K40%
1+ BB61%
Career vs Griffin Jax
1 PA sample
HR
0
AVG
.000
SLG
.000
2
Hunter Goodman
#3 Hot
COL vs PIT · Bubba Chandler
44.4%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit67%
★2+ Total Bases70%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)44%
1+ Single42%
1+ HR44%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 4.76 · BP 4.43
1+ K83%
2+ K43%
1+ BB47%
3
Zach Neto
#1 Hot
LAA @ ATH · Jeffrey Springs· BvP 0HR / 5PA
43.6%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit65%
2+ Total Bases59%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)40%
1+ Single40%
1+ HR44%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.13 · BP 4.86
1+ K79%
2+ K38%
1+ BB35%
4
Shohei Ohtani
Proj Hot
LAD vs BAL · Trey Gibson
42.4%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit70%
2+ Total Bases59%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)39%
1+ Single47%
1+ HR42%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.91 · BP 4.56
1+ K42%
2+ K9%
1+ BB69%
5
Ben Rice
#1
NYY vs CIN · Rhett Lowder
40.0%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit75%
★2+ Total Bases78%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)54%
1+ Single46%
1+ HR40%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.11 · BP 4.93
1+ K62%
2+ K22%
1+ BB63%
6
Brandon Lowe
#6 Hot
PIT @ COL · Kyle Freeland
39.5%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit62%
★2+ Total Bases63%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)44%
1+ Single34%
1+ HR39%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 7.98 · BP 5.11
1+ K59%
2+ K19%
1+ BB27%
7
Yordan Alvarez
#2
HOU vs CLE · Tanner Bibee
38.8%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit79%
2+ Total Bases74%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)45%
1+ Single56%
1+ HR39%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.96 · BP 3.66
1+ K54%
2+ K16%
1+ BB46%
8
Byron Buxton
#2
MIN @ AZ · Michael Soroka
37.7%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit71%
★2+ Total Bases72%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)48%
1+ Single43%
1+ HR38%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.11 · BP 4.01
1+ K77%
2+ K36%
1+ BB19%
9
Nick Kurtz
#2 Hot
ATH vs LAA · José Soriano· BvP 1HR / 14PA
36.6%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit74%
2+ Total Bases69%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)43%
1+ Single52%
1+ HR37%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 2.79 · BP 4.68
1+ K83%
2+ K44%
1+ BB77%
10
Pete Alonso
#3 Hot
BAL @ LAD · Roki Sasaki
35.7%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit66%
2+ Total Bases55%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single47%
1+ HR36%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 4.76 · BP 3.72
1+ K71%
2+ K29%
1+ BB41%
11
CJ Abrams
#4
WSH @ TB · Griffin Jax
34.3%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit71%
2+ Total Bases58%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)37%
1+ Single50%
1+ HR34%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.80 · BP 4.67
1+ K62%
2+ K22%
1+ BB36%
12
Alec Burleson
#3
STL @ KC · Seth Lugo
33.8%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases53%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single53%
1+ HR34%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.86 · BP 4.84
1+ K48%
2+ K12%
1+ BB29%
13
Max Muncy
Proj Hot
LAD vs BAL · Trey Gibson
32.8%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit65%
2+ Total Bases56%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single45%
1+ HR33%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.91 · BP 4.56
1+ K43%
2+ K10%
1+ BB60%
14
Colson Montgomery
#4
CWS @ DET · Tarik Skubal
29.1%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit62%
2+ Total Bases58%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)39%
1+ Single34%
1+ HR29%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 2.89 · BP 4.05
1+ K86%
2+ K46%
1+ BB17%
15
Freddie Freeman
Proj Hot
LAD vs BAL · Trey Gibson
29.0%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit68%
2+ Total Bases52%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)34%
1+ Single48%
1+ HR29%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.91 · BP 4.56
1+ K31%
2+ K5%
1+ BB56%
16
Andy Pages
Proj Hot
LAD vs BAL · Trey Gibson
26.1%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit67%
2+ Total Bases53%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)34%
1+ Single46%
1+ HR26%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.91 · BP 4.56
1+ K37%
2+ K7%
1+ BB35%
17
Dillon Dingler
#2
DET vs CWS · Brandon Eisert· BvP 0HR / 5PA
25.8%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit69%
2+ Total Bases62%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)43%
1+ Single41%
1+ HR26%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 5.50 · BP 4.27
1+ K73%
2+ K31%
1+ BB28%
18
Christian Walker
#3
HOU vs CLE · Tanner Bibee
25.2%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit66%
2+ Total Bases58%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)38%
1+ Single42%
1+ HR25%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.96 · BP 3.66
1+ K62%
2+ K21%
1+ BB28%
19
Shea Langeliers
#3 Hot
ATH vs LAA · José Soriano· BvP 2HR / 15PA
22.6%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit71%
2+ Total Bases65%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)40%
1+ Single49%
1+ HR23%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 2.79 · BP 4.68
1+ K66%
2+ K25%
1+ BB39%
20
JJ Bleday
#2
CIN @ NYY · Cam Schlittler
20.4%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
1+ Hit70%
★2+ Total Bases72%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)50%
1+ Single40%
1+ HR20%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 1.76 · BP 3.46
1+ K70%
2+ K29%
1+ BB32%
21
Willy Adames
#6
SF @ MIA · Lake Bachar
19.4%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit60%
2+ Total Bases45%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)33%
1+ Single37%
1+ HR19%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.10 · BP 3.43
1+ K81%
2+ K39%
1+ BB22%
22
Brooks Lee
#6
MIN @ AZ · Michael Soroka
19.0%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit61%
2+ Total Bases48%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)30%
1+ Single44%
1+ HR19%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.11 · BP 4.01
1+ K53%
2+ K15%
1+ BB16%
23
Tyler Soderstrom
#4 Hot
ATH vs LAA · José Soriano
18.0%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit63%
2+ Total Bases57%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)44%
1+ Single34%
1+ HR18%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 2.79 · BP 4.68
1+ K63%
2+ K22%
1+ BB56%
24
Willson Contreras
#4
BOS @ SEA · Bryce Miller
18.0%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases59%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)37%
1+ Single50%
1+ HR18%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 1.54 · BP 3.43
1+ K82%
2+ K42%
1+ BB17%
25
Jordan Walker
#4
STL @ KC · Seth Lugo
17.9%
// Alt Props · Lower-risk options★ recommended
★1+ Hit72%
2+ Total Bases57%
1+ XBH (2B/3B/HR)35%
1+ Single52%
1+ HR18%
// Discipline Props · K / BBSP ERA 3.86 · BP 4.84
1+ K66%
2+ K25%
1+ BB24%
// The Model · v2.0

How we rank

Batter HR Rate

Season HR/PA, blended with rolling 15-day form to catch hot streaks.

Pitcher Vulnerability

Starter HR/9 blended with bullpen HR/9, plus Barrel% / Hard-Hit% allowed.

Handedness Matchup

Batter vs LHP/RHP splits combined with pitcher's splits against that side.

Park + Weather

Multi-year HR park factor × live wind component toward CF × temperature.

P(HR | game) = 1 − (1 − hr_per_pa × blended_pitcher_factor × park × weather × handedness × recent_form × pitcher_x_factor)expected_PA
Data: MLB Stats API · Baseball-Savant-style xStats · open-meteo weather · static park factors